Assessment of fluctuations of the long-term runoff in the Shu-Talas river basin

Abstract

In the article is analyzes long-term fluctuations in the runoff of the Shu-Talas river basin. In the
irver basin connection with the lack of data in the series of observations for the selected calculation
period, the hydrological data of the series were restored by using the method of recalculated
analogs.
The homogeneity series of the river basin was estimated by using the modern StokStat program, as
well as Student, Fisher, Wilcoxon criterias. Long-term runoff fluctuations were determined by various

methods, in particular, the difference integral curves, the number of series, the generalization of years of
different probability. Fluctuations in the runoff are calculated by the method of the probability of occurrence
of a average water ages.
The study of fluctuations in river runoff is a very difficult task, it has great scientific and practical
significance. Long-term fluctuations in river runoff directly depend on the flowforming factors, and the
rivers have been classified into several types of feeding of rivers. For river basins covering large areas and
located on different physical and geographical conditions, the study of cyclic fluctuations in the runoff
layer was carried out on the basis of observation materials.
Evaluation of long-term fluctuations of the Shu-Talas river basin is of great importance for water supply
of settlements, water management facilities, recreational areas of the region.