Моделирование формирования динамики снежного покрова и снегового стока рек Иле-Балкашского бассейна с помощью метода “Degree-Day” (на примере р. Киши Алматы)

Аңдатпа

The article presents the results of testing and using the method of model of formation of the flow of the rivers “Degree-Day”. Using the example of the Kishi Almaty River in the Ile-Balkhash Basin, the model’s workability is shown and the limits of its applicability are determined. The method of model of flow formation is an essential element for stimulating the efficiency of processes and management of land and water resources. Thus, the objectives of the study are as follows: to define the effectiveness of the calculation of hydrometeorological characteristics for the model “Degree-Day”; consider the presented ranges of sampling values ​​and efficiency for recommended statistics, and establish basic principles for evaluating the model based on the results of the analysis and specific projects for modeling river flow. Recommended graphics and statistics are calculated: Nash-Sutcliff efficiency (NSE), percentage deviation (PBIAS), and the ratio of the standard error to the standard deviation of the measured data (RSR), provide graphical methods that will be used to evaluate the model. Simulated daily data on air temperature and precipitation at the Esik meteorological station for the period 2000-2015, which are the main ones for the Degree-Day method of flow formation model.

Key words: calibration and validation, start of snow accumulation, end of snowmelt, snow volume, snow height, air temperature, rainfall,