SPATIAL AND INFRASTRUCTURAL DETERMINANTS OF ROAD TRAFFIC MORTALITY IN KAZAKHSTAN: A VISION ZERO PERSPECTIVE TOWARD SDG INDICATOR 3.6.1

Abstract

This study aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of recent trends in road traffic accidents (RTAs) and road traffic mortality in Kazakhstan from demographic, spatial, and infrastructural perspectives. The research is grounded in the methodological frameworks of Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) indicator 3.6.1, the Safe System approach, and the Vision Zero concept. The analysis draws on official national statistics for the period 2018–2022, reports from international organizations (WHO, OECD/ITF), and infrastructure safety assessment data from the International Road Assessment Programme (iRAP). The findings indicate that despite a relative decline in the number of RTAs in Kazakhstan, the level of road traffic mortality has not decreased and has even increased in certain years. This pattern suggests that measures primarily aimed at reducing crash frequency have been insufficient in mitigating the severity of their consequences. A disproportionately high share of fatalities occurs within built-up areas, particularly among pedestrians and minors, highlighting fundamental shortcomings in the safety-oriented design of urban road infrastructure. iRAP assessments reveal that the majority of the road network is rated at 1–3 stars, underscoring the decisive role of infrastructural factors in road traffic mortality. The study concludes that Kazakhstan’s current road safety policies are inadequate to achieve the targets of SDG indicator 3.6.1 and emphasizes the need for systemic, prevention-oriented strategies based on Vision Zero principles. The results provide a scientific basis for improving road safety through the integration of spatial planning and infrastructure-focused policy interventions.