IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE ECOSYSTEMS OF GIZILAGAJ NATIONAL PARK: PROJECTIONS AND ADAPTATION

Abstract

The primary objective of this study is a comprehensive analysis of degradation processes within the ecosystems of the Gizilagaj National Park (Ramsar Site No. 168) under the combined influence of regional warming and the regression of the Caspian Sea. The research is based on a synthesis of IPCC predictive scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 models) with multi-spectral Earth remote sensing data. The empirical framework comprises results from field expeditions (including the 2025 verification of nesting site conditions) aimed at assessing the transformation of wetland complexes amidst falling sea levels. A steady trend toward critical aridization and secondary salinization of landscapes was identified, triggering deep fragmentation of hydrophilic biotopes. The study establishes that the degradation of the forage base and the loss of ecological connectivity within lagoon systems lead to the destabilization of migration strategies for the Dalmatian Pelican (Pelecanus crispus) and the Greater Flamingo (Phoenicopterus roseus). It is demonstrated that the current rate of ecosystem transformation renders traditional passive conservation measures insufficient. Furthermore, a protocol for adaptive management of the territory was developed and justified, proposing active correction of the water regime through the modernization of the collector-drainage network. For the first time, a concept of dynamic monitoring zones is proposed, allowing for rapid response to coastline shifts and the preservation of the park’s function as a key ornithological refugium of the Caspian Basin under climate stress.