ҮЛКЕН АЛМАТЫ ӨЗЕНІ АЛАБЫНДАҒЫ МҰЗДЫҚТЫҚ-МОРЕНАЛЫҚ КӨЛДЕРДІҢ НЕГІЗГІ МОРФОМЕТРИЯЛЫҚ СИПАТТАМАЛАРЫН АНЫҚТАУДАҒЫ ГАЖ ЖӘНЕ ҚАШЫҚТЫҚТАН ЗОНДТАУ МҮМКІНДІКТЕРІ

А.К Мусина; М.Н. Тұрсынғали; Ә.С. Абдуллаева; Е.Қ. Ермаш; М.С. Оспанова; Ж.У. Бексултанова

doi:10.26577/JGEM82320265

Authors

A Mussina Al-Farabi Kazakh National University https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5115-2640 (unauthenticated)
M Tursyngali Al-Farabi Kazakh National University https://orcid.org/0009-0005-5925-5889 (unauthenticated)
A. Abdullayeva Al-Farabi Kazakh National University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8947-4920 (unauthenticated)
Ye. Yermash https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6903-6701 (unauthenticated)
M. Ospanova Al-Farabi Kazakh National University https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9925-4198 (unauthenticated)
Zh. Beksultanova https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8256-2362 (unauthenticated)

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.26577/JGEM82320265

Keywords:

glacial-moraine lakes, GIS analysis, morphometric characteristics, remote sensing, mudflow risk, mudflow hazard

Abstract

Under conditions of climate warming, the increasing risk of glacial-moraine lake outburst necessitates systematic monitoring of their morphometric characteristics. This study aims to assess changes in the morphometric characteristics of glacial-moraine lakes in the Ulken Almaty River basin, located on the northern slope of the Ile Alatau, using remote sensing data and GIS technologies. The methodological framework included the processing of Sentinel-2 satellite imagery for 2015-2025 obtained from the Copernicus Open Access Hub. The Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI) was applied to delineate water bodies, while ArcGIS Pro was used to calculate and spatially analyze morphometric parameters. For each lake, a set of 12 morphometric indicators characterizing the size, shape, and dynamics of the water bodies was determined. The results revealed a multidirectional pattern of changes in the glacial-moraine lakes during the study period. Between 2015 and 2025, the area of individual lakes increased by approximately 0.90-9.60 thousand m², whereas a decrease of 3.00-31.3 thousand m² was observed for several other lakes. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the integrated use of a multi-year series of satellite data and GIS analysis for the quantitative assessment of the spatiotemporal variability of glacial-moraine lakes in the Ulken Almaty River basin. The obtained results can be used to update the monitoring of glacial-moraine lakes and to provide information support for assessing potential mudflow hazards.

Author Biographies

A Mussina, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University

Candidate of Geographical Sciences, Associate Professor at the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Kazakhstan, e-mail: Ainur.Musina@kaznu.edu.kz);
M Tursyngali, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University

PhD, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Kazakhstan, e-mail: Marzhan.Tursyngali@kaznu.edu.kz);
A. Abdullayeva, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University

PhD, Acting Associate Professor at the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Kazakhstan, e-mail: Assel.Abdullayeva@kaznu.edu.kz);
Ye. Yermash

Master’s degree, PhD Candidate at the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Kazakhstan, e-mail: yermashyerbol@gmail.com)
M. Ospanova, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University

PhD, Acting Associate Professor at the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Kazakhstan, e-mail:Marzhan.Ospanova@kaznu.edu.kz);
Zh. Beksultanova

Master’s degree, Senior Lecturer at the Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University (Almaty, Kazakhstan, e-mail: Zhansaya.Bexultanova@kaznu.edu.kz);